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Hi Quentin, this is definitely the right way and place to raise this sort of question! Others on the network will probably be able to help more but for now, here are a few pieces of research on the carbon footprint of the sector and how it is responding to climate change:

• This blog post on the NCVO website has a rough go at estimating the sector's carbon footprint by looking at emissions per employee using research done by Chris Goodall at www.lowcarbonlife.net on carbon emissions for office based companies.

• You can also read or download this piece of research commissioned by the Charity Commission into the ways in which charities are trying to be more environmentally responsible.

  Has anyone else come across any other research?

Has your organisation experienced a rise in volunteers from other sectors as a result of the recession? Join in the discussion where members are debating the greater diversity of volunteers' backgrounds as a result of the recession and whether they will stay or go once it's over. What do you think will happen?

Hi Beck,

Having asked around the foresight team here at NCVO, we don't know of any futures work specifically on young people but we are about to start a futures project with the National Council for Voluntary Youth Services (NCVYS) on the future of young people, so we can keep you up to date with that. However, it will finish in February next year which may be a bit late for you... The project will be the same as the other specialist futures projects we've done with partners over the past year - for an example see this completed one on older people. We will also have someone seconded here from NCVYS one day a week. If you haven't already looked, NCVYS may have some useful stuff on their website and I can put you in touch with our contact/secondee there to if there's any related work they know of. I will email them now.

The only other thing I can think of off the top of my head on a related theme is some work that Ipsos Mori and the Camelot foundation did a while ago on young people and their identity which might be useful if you haven't seen it, see here. It's not a futures report but it analyses trends around identity.

Otherwise it might be worth searching for anyone working with young people on this website through the member directory and contact them directly to see if they know of anything?

Natalie

Are you having trouble developing a strategy for the first time? As Hilary Barnard, Head of Strategy and change at the Cass Centre for Charity Effectiveness says "An organisational strategy is a powerful idea but may not be easy to develop the first time round." In his recent article 'Like Strategy for the Very First Time' he takes a light hearted look at developing a strategy by expressing the possibilities of strategy through popular songs (with a little tweaking) as well as signalling some of the assumptions that limit strategic development in voluntary and community organisations.

Has anyone else got any tips they want to share that might help any strategy virgins out there?

Anyone heard of Twollars? Well they're a new online 'currency of appreciation' that you can use on Twitter to reward positive actions. Each Twitter user automatically has 50 Twollars in their account. So they're great news for VCOs as people can give Twollars to the charity of your choice and once the charity has created an account, they can sell their Twollars to businesses and people who support their cause and want more Twollars. So, Twollars are designed to go back into circulation. I'm wondering if this is an example of a wider, growing trend where faced with a dwindling supply of and more expensive real currency in the recession, people are increasingly starting to trade in other items. This is after all how currency started with shells, gold pieces and the like. This might also link to people increasingly feeling that they want to participate in good causes and get more involved in their community in a time where many people are facing hard times, something which has happened in previous recessions. This may also extend to trading skills as shown by Time Banking UK. Sharing skills and time can be an important way of maintaining care and fostering mutual support in economies affected by the recession. So you go and read to a person who doesn't speak much English and they may cook a meal for an older person, who may in turn offer some gardening advice to another person, you basically just donate the time or the action.

This Young Foundation paper which we discussed on the site here explores some of the examples of alternative currencies already in use like LetsLink UK (see pages 25-26) where people exchange all kinds of goods and services with one another, without the need for money. Is anyone else using any alternative currencies for social or positive action or causes or heard of any groups doing this? What do you think it shows about our society and how we are adapting to the recession and how we might function in the future?

For more information about Twollars and how to donate them, see this FAQ page.

Have you voted yet? If you're stuck for who to vote for or can't work out the differences between the parties (not always easy!), try this vote matcher website for the European elections

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation are doing quite a bit of work looking at the challenges for the future of adult social care at the moment in an attempt to influence the Government Green Paper on this issue.

Future issues they are exploring are:

• The concept of ‘obligations’ and the ‘intergenerational contract’;
• The concept of ‘care’;
• The concept of equity;
• Gender;
• Lessons from overseas and devolved administrations;
• What are the parameters of the state, individual, family and community responsibilities?

They have produced a number of publications and articles on the topic. See here for more information.

Another recent twitter innovation is the ‘Twitchhiker’ who is hitchhiking round the world to New Zealand by relying on the good will of the Twitter community for the charity Water.
He’s apparently setting out to prove that the connections we make online are as strong as those we make offline; a criticism which is often levelled at social media. He’ll also be looking at how online contact can facilitate offline contact, something we often talk about at Foresight in relation to the benefits of social media so it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Follow the Twitchhiker at twitter.com/twitchhiker and his blog at @twitchhiker.

We also produced these scenarios for the future of the advice sector back in 2007. They might be a little out of date now but many of the trends looked at are still around and they might be useful to look at as examples of scenarios.

This issue (PDF 3.5MB) of the Forced Migration Review on Climate change and displacement might also be useful. It contains articles by UN, academic, international and local actors exploring the extent of the potential displacement crisis, community adaptation, coping strategies, and the search for solutions.

And remember: “Any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculous” – Jim Dator, futurist. (This statement is known as Dator’s Law)

As well as thinking up our own headlines, we also did a quick and dirty poll where we asked people how likely or unlikely they thought these statements about the future were.

Why not add your votes or add some of your own statements that you’d like people to vote on?

The VCS will see an increase in volunteers in 2009 as a result of the recession
Unlikely: 7
Likely: 18

By 2050 there will be no government spending on the VCS
Unlikely: 18
Likely: 6

The Conservatives will win the next General election
Unlikely: 8
Likely: 17

2009 will be the year people get bored of Facebook
Unlikely: 22
Likely: 3

By 2029, 1/3 of the population will be self-sustainable and grow all their own food
Unlikely: 24
Likely: 2

More migrants will go home than come to the UK next year
Unlikely: 11
Likely: 10

By 2029, it will be so expensive to travel by aeroplane, most people will travel abroad by train
Unlikely: 18
Likely: 9

By 2029, China will be the new superpower
Unlikely: 8
Likely: 15

By 2029, hurricanes and tsunamis will have wiped out 1/3 of the Pacific Islands
Unlikely: 11
Likely: 11

Medical science will have advanced so much that in the year 2045, the average lifespan will be 120 years.
Unlikely: 15
Likely: 8

I thought I’d share these newspaper headlines or predictions for the future from our Strategy Conference last month and see if anyone wanted to add any more? As you can see they can be about anything, so be as creative as you want!

• Bankrupt Britain (The Sun)
• Guantanamo closed
• New prisons all full
• Bush indicted for war crimes
• EU buys UK debt with 1€ valued at £2 as UK switches to Euros (The Financial Times)
• Cure for HIV found
• Portu-gone! Climate change turns Portugal into desert and floods eastern England
• Primark forced to close for unethical labour practices
• Guidedog passes driving test
• The National Health Service is no more
• Independence for Scotland heralds break of UK (Daily Mail)
• Shock horror! Britain out of fuel by 2015
• Government funds lifelong learning
• For ‘u’ Tommy the trade war is over (The Sun)
• Government commissions VCS to carry out all services (The Guardian)
• Prison education helps offenders achieve progress into happy, confident, successful individuals
• High court rules child with two heads human (The Star)
• Brangelina shock! We no longer want to be in the public eye! (Hello)

Although aimed at businesses, this article from the Economist about managing in a downturn highlights the importance of cash to boost an organisation’s liquidity and ward off other economic problems in this era of no credit. The future success of many businesses is now increasingly dependent on how much cash investors can see in the coffers, and with the majority of VCOs having low reserves, these tips for how to preserve cash in the current crisis might come in handy for some organisations:

• Stretch out the payments on bank debt to preserve cash – organisations should also look out for opportunities to refinance existing loans early to give themselves greater financial flexibility.
• Try and generate more cash from existing operations – take a hard look at how you run areas such as finance, HR and technology. Outsourcing may also be a cheaper option.
• Try and release some cash trapped in day-to-day operations – make sure any products ordered are forecasted and planned properly so you don’t end up with unwanted stock.

However, the article warns against taking the phrase ‘cash is king’ to its extreme, pointing out that there is a risk that in a rush to build up mountains of cash too quickly, cuts may be made too fast and too deep when a more targeted approach is needed. There are a few areas where the article advises caution:

• Leave the technology budget alone – according to McKinsey Quarterly, technology budgets are often a favourite place to make cuts but indiscriminate chopping will be more damaging than ever before because IT systems are now often tightly interwoven with everything in an organisation.
• Be careful not to choke off investment in promising new products or services – paradoxically a recession can be a fantastic time to launch innovation. Tougher times can make consumers or indeed funders reconsider many of their purchasing decisions, leaving them open to trying something new. A less crowded marketplace also makes it easier – and cheaper – to create awareness of a new offering.

The article suggests that having plenty of cash can help businesses or organisations emerge not just having “survived the storm but having changed the game”. Any organisation who wants to succeed in the downturn will need to have the financial resources to seize any opportunities that arise during it and if they can do that, there are likely to be many rewards to be reaped in the future.

According to this viewpoint by JRF, museums are experiencing their biggest cultural shift in 150 years. Since my last news post which highlighted four potential scenarios for museums in the future and explored how museums were changing in response to challenges from technology and shifting ideas about authority and hierarchy, I’ve been thinking about some of different ways in which museums are changing. As museums encompass particularly traditional ideas of culture, heritage and history, the rapidly changing external environment and the drivers operating within it are more likely to have a considerable impact. And with museums making up a significant sub sector of civil society (about an eighth of civil society to be more exact), I thought it might be interesting to explore some of the changes affecting museums in this forum. Those of you working in museums might want to add your thoughts about how you think museums are changing and how you think they are likely to change further in the future, or I’m sure most people have been to a museum at some point in their life so can add their thoughts from another perspective.

The viewpoint explores whether we have moved into the age of the social museum or the “post-museum” and considers whether museums are now the powerful force in social and urban regeneration they have promised to be. It contains some detailed case studies of current initiatives, looks at how far museums now go beyond the display and interpretation of collections; their potential role in regeneration; and whether they can create a space where social issues can be examined in a way the public finds accessible. The case studies show that some of the scenarios I linked to before might not be as far away as people might first think.

Some of the key points in the viewpoint are worth a mention and a good example of how some of the main drivers affecting all VCOs can interlink and have an impact on different subsectors:

• Museums are playing a key part in social change, addressing a range of social issues such as crime prevention, this reflects the changes we have seen in the opening up of different spaces to tackle social change, generate social cohesion and as such play a valuable role in the workings of civil society.
• As a free meeting place, museums increasingly provide a friendly meeting place for young people to meet off the street. Are the days when independent meeting places were limited to the community centre gone? These shifts are not that far removed from the world of the forum scenario.
• Curators are coming from a range of different backgrounds, reflecting the trend for multiple careers as well as the widening of career opportunities for people from diverse backgrounds.
• Curators are increasingly aware of their role in making sense of history, and are aware that any curatorial choices they make need to respond to other voices within the community. This reflects the increasingly diverse make up of UK society as well as the rising expectations and assertiveness" of citizens.
• Museums are also increasing becoming central spaces of mutual understanding where cultural identity can be developed, driven by either museum professionals or communities. Such identities may reflect recent social change or previously unacknowledged histories.

However, the view point also highlights some challenges for museums in the modern world:

• Convincing other agencies of museums’ role in tackling social change;
• Reflecting the speed of social change which may require adapting complex organisational structure;
• Acknowledging concerns about traditional curatorial remits;
• Exploring legitimate ideas that some still feel are too sensitive for social history;
• Addressing the physical accessibility of older museums.

It is interesting that these challenges which arise from changes in the world around us are pretty much affecting all VCOs, not just museums, albeit in different ways.

• What challenges do you think are facing museums?
• Do you have any examples of how they are increasingly reflecting our changing society?

I’ve just added a driver on the credit crunch here

If you want to know a bit more about the characteristics of ‘generation Y’ and some of the myths associated with them, have a read of this news post

What topic would you like the next in our series of Future Focus to cover? Previous editions have covered funding, volunteering, new technologies, local democracy, changing social attitudes.

Answers by the end of October please.

Sarah has written about a new report from the Social Market Foundation which examines whether community empowerment measures are really effective. Read about it here

Thanks everyone for your responses. I was lucky enough to spend all of Friday at the London Futures Symposium with a group of futurists (who are experts in thinking about the future and working with tools such as scenarios) so I took the chance to raise some of these issues there. I was offered lots of tips such as spending more time on prioritising the drivers first, in order to get agreement from everyone about which drivers are the most important and uncertain. When you do this, the two axes should in theory, stand out more obviously. However, everybody seemed to come to the same conclusion you’ve all suggested – our scenario question was not focused enough. We did not know what we were trying to find the answer to or create a scenario for! As Stephen says half the time should be devoted to the question, but in a day long session in which we had to identify drivers, cluster them, then create the axes and scenarios, it was unfortunately something which we didn’t have time to do! So the answer for such short sessions might be to at least have list of drivers first for participants to work from.

The seminar report for this session is now available here. The report is designed to also be understood by people who didn’t attend the seminar. So why not have a read of the groups’ reactions to the scenarios and add what you think the opportunities and risks might be for your organisation?

The report for this seminar is available to read online or download as a PDF here

This news post discusses a report by the Times which revealed that for the first time since they began arriving four years ago, more UK-based Poles are returning to Poland than entering Britain.

The post examines some of the implications for this on the UK economy and labour market.