Natalie Williams
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Natalie says...
Natalie used to manage this online community. Her particular areas of interest are the future of politics and the ideology behind it and behavioural and attitudinal shifts in society.
Hi Quentin, this is definitely the right way and place to raise this sort of question! Others on the network will probably be able to help more but for now, here are a few pieces of research on the carbon footprint of the sector and how it is responding to climate change:
<><>This blog post on the NCVO website has a rough go at estimating the sector's carbon footprint by looking at emissions per employee using research done by Chris Goodall at www.lowcarbonlife.net on carbon emissions for office...Has your organisation experienced a rise in volunteers from other sectors as a result of the recession? Join in the discussion where members are debating the greater diversity of volunteers' backgrounds as a result of the recession and whether they will stay or go once it's over. What do you think will happen?
Hi Beck,
<>Having asked around the foresight team here at NCVO, we don't know of any futures work specifically on young people but we are about to start a futures project with the National Council for Voluntary Youth Services (NCVYS) on the future of young people, so we can keep you up to date with that. However, it will finish in February next year which may be a bit late for you... The project will be the same as the other specialist futures projects we've done with partners over the past...Party conference season is often a time of great political plotting, posturing and blunders so will this year’s conferences hammer the last nail into in the coffin of either of the two main parties? Or will they give us a clearer sense of what the parties would do if they were to win the next General Election? A successful conference for Labour or equally a bad performance by the Conservatives could mean the outcome of the General Election is still very much up for grabs.
<>This week was the...Monitoring of public concerns can provide an insight into the issues that will shape future public and political debate. Although these concerns are diverse, many are now linked in the media by the common narrative of spending cuts.
<>Since the recession, public concerns over the economy and unemployment have become more important. Immigration (see attitudes to immigrants) and law and order are other key issues, also of increasing importance since the recession. A recent development at the end...Have you voted yet? If you're stuck for who to vote for or can't work out the differences between the parties (not always easy!), try this vote matcher website for the European elections
Green taxes are supported by all three political parties as a way of influencing consumers to reduce their impact on climate change and pressure on global resources. Green taxes involve making enviromentally unsound products and services (e.g. car and air travel) more expensive, thereby making ‘green’ options more attractive. Although controversial, green taxes remain high on the policy agenda and were recommended as one of the ways to tackle climate change in the Stern Review.
<>A number of...What impact would a re-elected Labour Government or a new Conservative one have on your organisation? What would the effects of this be combined with a short, sharp recession or a long, deep one? How would these possible changes affect the way your organisation develops and influences policy as well as the environment in which you operate?
<>The potential implications of a change of government and a recession are explored in these four scenarios which were developed with members of the <>NCVO...The Joseph Rowntree Foundation are doing quite a bit of work looking at the challenges for the future of adult social care at the moment in an attempt to influence the Government Green Paper on this issue.
Future issues they are exploring are:
<>He’s apparently setting out to prove that the connections we make online are as strong as those we make offline; a criticism which is often levelled at social media. He’ll also be looking at how online contact can facilitate offline contact, something we often talk about at Foresight in relation to the benefits of...
We also produced these scenarios for the future of the advice sector back in 2007. They might be a little out of date now but many of the trends looked at are still around and they might be useful to look at as examples of scenarios.
This issue (PDF 3.5MB) of the Forced Migration Review on Climate change and displacement might also be useful. It contains articles by UN, academic, international and local actors exploring the extent of the potential displacement crisis, community adaptation, coping strategies, and the search for solutions.
And remember: “Any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculous” – Jim Dator, futurist. (This statement is known as Dator’s Law)
It feels like it’s been a long time coming but today the UK is technically in the grips of the ‘R’ word for the first time since 1991. Gross domestic product fell by 1.5% in the last three months of 2008 after a 0.6% drop in the previous quarter which represents the biggest quarter-on-quarter decline since 1980. This means that the widely accepted definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of falling economic growth - has been met.
<>We have been dutifully posting news and updating...Will the green movement fall out of favour in this economic climate?
Facing the Challenges of the 21st Century: Leading Volunteer Programmes in Uncertain Times
29 January 2009, Radisson SAS Portman Hotel, London
This one day briefing covers all the key issues encountered by leading volunteer programmes. It will explore the problems, management structures and, more importantly, the practical solutions, illustrated with real life case studies. The event is essential for everyone responsible for managing, recruiting, co-ordinating and motivating volunteers.
<>I...Although aimed at businesses, this article from the Economist about managing in a downturn highlights the importance of cash to boost an organisation’s liquidity and ward off other economic problems in this era of no credit. The future success of many businesses is now increasingly dependent on how much cash investors can see in the coffers, and with the majority of VCOs having low reserves, these tips for how to preserve cash in the current crisis might come in handy for some organisations:
<> ...Is the credit crunch having an effect on your organisation? If so, tell us how.
I’ve just added a driver on the credit crunch here
This driver has been archived
A credit crunch is a [sudden] reduction in the availability of liquidity in the financial markets ( i.e. loans or credit) resulting in a sudden increase in the cost of obtaining a loan from financial institutions.
<>High-levels of indebtedness, the interconnected global markets and the effects of the US subprime mortgage crisis and overleveraging of financial institutions caused a worldwide credit crunch. The freeze in lending between banks despite cuts in <>interest...If you want to know a bit more about the characteristics of ‘generation Y’ and some of the myths associated with them, have a read of this news post
This driver has been archived
This driver has been archived
What topic would you like the next in our series of Future Focus to cover? Previous editions have covered funding, volunteering, new technologies, local democracy, changing social attitudes.
Answers by the end of October please.
Sarah has written about a new report from the Social Market Foundation which examines whether community empowerment measures are really effective. Read about it here
Museums are not normally something people necessarily think about as being part of the VCS but there are actually 1, 118 independent museums in the UK which are registered charities according to this year’s Civil Society Almanac. That’s why this blog post by Andrew Curry from the Henley Centre Headlight Vision on the future of museums caught my eye. The current model of the museum itself, he points out is:
<><>“…about 150 years old [and] basically consists of a building with some stuff in it,...NCVO's second charity forecast survey opens on 2nd May 2008. NCVO is inviting voluntary sector leaders to give their views on the health and prospects of their organisations in the second round of its confidence and trends survey. This quarterly survey questions sector leaders on current trends and future expectations. If you are a chief executive, director, chairman or trustee, you can add your voice to this vital quarterly planning tool, follow the link below to take the survey.
The survey
<>Th...Advice in the future: scenarios and issues for the future of the advice sector
Published: May 2007
This report provides strategic analysis specifically for the advice sector. It outlines changes in the external environment for advice organisations and the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It contains signposts to further information, thought provoking questions and a tool to help organisations take practical action.
The report focuses on four key areas: 
The UK population and the attitudes of the people within it are diverse and unsurprisingly, their views can be contradictory. Public attitudes have significant implications for much of the VCS’s work; from campaigning, volunteering and service delivery, to its workforce and funding.
<>The fifth in our series of Future Focus guides explores the increasing tolerance of the British public towards difference in some areas, for example, towards ethnic diversity, the freedom to define one’s own...This driver will particularly affect organisations working with people in debt or those more likely to get in debt.
With house prices falling and mortage repayments rising, the rate of repossessions is likely to rise which may result in more people finding themselves with high levels of personal debt.
Organisations need to think about how they can plan for higher levels of demand on their services. They may need to start to source increased levels of funding or recruit more staff.
3 June 2008
Wellcome Collection Conference Centre
London
Do you want to know about new funding and finance opportunities for your organisation? This year’s NCVO Sustainable Funding Project’s Annual Gathering will scan the horizon for new finance and funding opportunities for your organisation to benefit from.
<>The day will consist of an exciting programme of presentations from leaders in the field, informative and practical workshops, and 1-2-1 surgery and advice sessions. You will come away...We are currently recruiting for last member of our newly expanding team. This advert went in the Society Guardian last Wednesday:
“Organising and administering a range of events, you will lead on communicating our findings about the trends shaping the future of civil society, as well as marketing our services and undertaking small research projects in support of the team.
<><>You will have excellent team working skills and experience of managing a busy office. You will have strong communication...Class boundaries are becoming blurred and the middle class is growing. But there remains a close relationship between the financial achievements of parents and of their children. This indicates that social mobility remains low. Indeed, Britain has the lowest social mobility in Europe [1].
<>Education has a significant influence on social mobility. Parents can increase their children’s academic and future financial attainment by helping with homework and being encouraging. Middle income parents...The seminar report for this session is now available here. The report is designed to also be understood by people who didn’t attend the seminar. So why not have a read of the groups’ reactions to the scenarios and add what you think the opportunities and risks might be for your organisation?
The report for this seminar is available to read online or download as a PDF here
The latest edition of the annual UK Civil Society Almanac is now available. This annual digest using GuideStar UK data presents statistics and analysis on the size and scope of the VCS. This year, for the first time, the Almanac has expanded to contain information on all UK civil society organisations, such as co-operatives, housing associations, universities, trade unions and political parties, not only ‘general charities’.
<>Below are some of the key findings and trends affecting UK civil...This news post discusses a report by the Times which revealed that for the first time since they began arriving four years ago, more UK-based Poles are returning to Poland than entering Britain.
The post examines some of the implications for this on the UK economy and labour market.
How will migration affect your organisation and how should you respond?
This will be the next topic in our popular series of seminars. Read on to book your free place at the seminar on 8 April, from 2.30 to 5pm at NCVO's offices in London.
What's happening?
<>There has been a marked increase in immigration to Britain since the mid-1990s. In particular, some of this migration has been in areas that have not previously experienced high levels of migration. This has inevitably resulted in a...
Like Megan, I attended the FAN (Future Analysts Network) club event on Tuesday and went to an interesting session in the afternoon which discussed some of the essential skills and approaches needed to make a strategy work. The session was led by Sean Lusk from the National School of Government. He raised 5 pre-conditions for a good strategy, can anyone else think of any more to add?
<>London Futures Symposium - Friday April 18th 2008
The Keyworth Centre, London South Bank University
NCVO is inviting voluntary sector leaders to give their views on the health and prospects of their organisations in its new confidence and trends survey. This quarterly survey questions sector leaders on current trends and future expectations. Follow the link below to take the test.
The survey
<>The survey aims to determine how optimistic they feel about the sector and what development plans they have for the coming quarter. The survey results will be used to make predictions about changes...The seminar report from the last Third Sector Foresight seminar on the impact of new technologies on the VCS is now available to download. The seminar explored the implications of new technologies for the VCS, focusing on the key areas of: fundraising; membership; accountability; campaigning; and collaboration. The report is based on presentations by five ‘experts’ in the area of new technologies, and the discussion they stimulated amongst seminar attendees:
<>I am currently writing the final ICT Foresight report on how ICT is shaping the design and delivery of services. I’ve decided to start the report by talking about the characteristics (if that’s the right word) of ICT which mean that they are having an impact on services. My list so far looks something like this: ICTs...
<>With increasing numbers of complex health care problems putting pressure on health care services plus a rapidly changing technological environment, it is important for VCOs to understand the effects of these changes and how they might impact on one another in the future.
<>This free Tomorrow Project Network Event run with the support of the Economic and Social Research Council will be addressed by Sir Michael Rawlins, Chairman of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)...Last year we ran a series of strategy seminars with the Performance Hub and these have now been turned into a series of interesting think pieces covering issues that we all face such as how to ensure your organisation stays on mission in spite of a challenging funding environment or whether to compete or collaborate. Each ‘Adventures in Strategy’ briefing explores five strategic issues to help you consider the theory and practice of your approach:
<> 1: Renewing your strategy<> 2: Involving users...
New 'Future Focus' pocket guide
Collaborate for a stronger, more successful and sustainable sector!
Collaborative working is increasingly becoming one of the key issues for the sector and is an important strategic issue for every organisation. This year's Collaborative Working Conference will provide a unique opportunity to exchange ideas and experience, and contribute to the development of the collaborative working agenda.
Despite organisations spending much of their time campaign planning and shaping messages and tactics, issues can be won or lost on a single piece of information.
This year’s political conference will provide critical political intelligence to help you plan and implement high-level political lobbying campaigns to modify legislation, influence public policy or simply to move the profile of an issue up the political agenda.
Who is this event for?
<>This event is for people working in charities,...Hi Tony,
We will be recording the seminar and then turning it in to a seminar report shortly afterwards which will be available on the website, with the presentations available to download as well. The discussions will be summarised in the report but we could put up a podcast from the audio recording as well which people can then download and listen to.
We always design the seminar reports so that they make sense to people who haven’t attended the seminar.
The Performance Hub are always good at providing organisations with practical tips and experience that will help improve their performance. One of their key areas of work is helping organisations develop their strategic thinking and planning skills.
These findings from the Performance Hub's action research project on how to form a good strategy are jam-packed with practical tips and learning from the experiences of five third sector organisations (TSOs).
<>The Performance Hub commissioned...Come and discuss the impact of new technologies on the future of your VCO and hear a variety of thought-provoking presentations from a panel of ICT experts.
Exploring the topic of the moment, this afternoon seminar will focus on the impact of new technologies for the VCS. The emphasis of the seminar is on discussion and organisations will be invited to discuss the implications of new technologies for their organisation; exploring both the future challenges and opportunities.
<><>The seminar will...On Monday 15th October we published the latest edition of our annual analysis of the changing operating environment and drivers for the voluntary and community sector - the Voluntary Sector Strategic Analysis 07/08.
The publication brings together discussion of key drivers and their implications in 'aspects' of the operating environment. The six aspects discussed in the 2007 edition are:
<>Thanks for your response Leon, do you have a link to your book you could post? I’m sure some of the other members would be interested as we haven’t finished the further reading section of this driver yet.
<>However, I would just like to add that all these drivers are intended as a quick overview of what’s going on as a starting point for further discussion. We have deliberately tried to keep them as short and concise as possible, this is also because they are in web format. The implications...Advice in the future: scenarios and issues for the future of the advice sector
This report analyses how key trends affecting the voluntary and community sector will impact on the future of the advice sector.
The report outlines how the operating environment for advice organisations is changing in four key areas, and some of the opportunities and challenges that may arise:
<>15 November 2007
1.30 – 4pm
NCVO, London
Come and discuss the impact of new technologies on the future of your VCO and hear a variety of thought-provoking presentations from a panel of ICT experts.
<>Exploring the topic of the moment, this seminar will focus on the impact of new technologies for the VCS. The seminar will feature a series of short presentations from a panel of ‘experts’ (who participated in our ICT Foresight research) on the implications of new technologies in key areas such as...Many environmentalists are not impressed, and see green consumerism as at best a diversion, and at worst an intensification of ecologically damaging behaviour, "a pox on the planet", in George Monbiot's words.
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/17/climatechange.consumer]
For more about this driver see Future Focus 2 -‘What will your volunteers be like in 5 years’ time?’
Will Davies on state intervention in voluntary activity http://potlatch.typepad.com/weblog/2007/09/camerons-nation.html
Is ethical shopping becoming a signifier of social status for the middle classes who can afford to buy hundreds of eco-gadgets? And will ethical consumerism actually translate into political action on climate change?
